The more likely wording is: “the Year of the Elephant,” for it is supported by the greater number of narrations. Ibn Maʿin was corroborated in reporting it thus: al-Bazzar (1/121/226) and al-Hakim (2/603) transmitted it through other chains from Hajjaj ibn Muhammad with this wording, while al-Bayhaqi and Ibn ʿAsakir narrated it from al-Hakim. Al-Hakim said: “Authentic according to the criteria of al-Bukhari and Muslim.” Al-Dhahabi agreed with him.
I say: It is as they said, were it not for the fact that Abu Ishaq—al-Sabiʿi—practised tadlis and became confused in his later years, and that his son Yunus narrated from him after this confusion had set in.
Al-Hakim then narrated it through al-Husayn ibn Humayd ibn al-Rabiʿ: “My father related to us; Hajjaj ibn Muhammad related to us,” with the wording: “the Day of the Elephant.” He said: “Humayd ibn al-Rabiʿ alone narrated this wording, and no one corroborated him in it.”
I say: Scholars differed over him, ranging from those who declared him a liar to those who deemed him trustworthy; consult Lisān al-Mīzān regarding him. But his son al-Husayn was in an even worse state: Mutayyin declared him a liar, Ibn ʿAdi accused him, and no one declared him trustworthy. Such a person’s hadith is not accepted even when he does not contradict others—so how then when he does contradict them? See Lisān al-Mīzān.
As for the hadith of Qays ibn Makhramah, Muhammad ibn Ishaq narrates it in al-Sirah (1/171), saying: al-Muttalib ibn ʿAbd Allah ibn Qays ibn Makhramah related to me, from his father, from his grandfather, who said:
“I and the Messenger of Allah, may Allah bless him and grant him peace, were born in the Year of the Elephant; we are age-mates.”
By way of Ibn Ishaq, it was recorded by al-Tirmidhi (9/24/3623), al-Hakim (2/603 and 3/456), and, through al-Hakim, al-Bayhaqi in Dalaʾil al-Nubuwwah (1/76), al-Tabarani in al-Muʿjam al-Kabir (18/342/43), Abu Nuʿaym in Dalaʾil al-Nubuwwah (1/101), and Ibn ʿAsakir as well—all of them from Ibn Ishaq through this chain. Al-Tirmidhi said—whose version contains an additional phrase in the text of the hadith: