and grant him peace—that explicitly designates him as imam and makes obedience to him obligatory.”

There is no doubt that their excuse in this regard is evident. Even supposing that the clear designation claimed by the Imāmiyya were true, it would have been concealed and suppressed during the time of Abū Bakr, ʿUmar, and ʿUthmān—may Allah be pleased with them. Muʿāwiyah and his companions could therefore not have been expected to know of such a thing even if it had been true—so how much more so when it is false!

As for his statement:

“The caliphate will last thirty years,”

and similar reports, these hadiths were not so widely known that people such as those men would necessarily have known them. They were transmitted only by a limited circle, [especially since] (1) they are not among the hadiths found in the two Sahih collections and other such compilations.

ʿAbd al-Malik ibn Marwān remained unaware of the Prophet’s statement—may Allah bless him and grant him peace—to ʿĀʾisha—may Allah be pleased with her:

“Were it not that your people had only recently emerged from the pre-Islamic Age of Ignorance, I would have demolished the Kaaba, brought it down to ground level, and given it two doors.” (2)

He remained unaware of this and similar reports until he demolished (3) what Ibn al-Zubayr had built. Then, when the report reached him, he said, “I wish I had left him in charge of what he had undertaken in this regard.” Yet ʿĀʾisha’s hadith is [established] and authentic, and its [authenticity] is agreed upon among the scholars (4).

It is therefore even more likely that Muʿāwiyah and his companions were unaware of his statement:

“After me, the caliphate will last thirty years; then it will become kingship.”

Moreover, at the beginning of ʿAlī’s caliphate—may Allah be pleased with him—this did not specifically indicate ʿAlī. Its bearing upon him became known only when he died—may Allah be pleased with him—and it is not, in any event, an explicit designation establishing any particular caliph.