The correct conclusion concerning Abū Bakr’s caliphate—and this is what Ahmad’s statements indicate—is that it was established through the Companions’ selection of him and their pledge of allegiance to him; that the Prophet (may Allah bless him and grant him peace) foretold it with praise and approval; that he commanded obedience to him and the entrusting of authority to him; and that he directed and guided the Muslim community to pledge allegiance to him.
These three forms—foretelling, commanding, and guiding—are established from the Prophet (may Allah bless him and grant him peace).
The first is exemplified by his saying:
“I saw myself as though I were at a well, drawing water from it. Then Ibn Abī Quhāfah came and drew a bucketful or two.” The hadith continues.
And his saying:
“It was as though a balance had been lowered from heaven to earth. I was weighed against the Muslim community and outweighed them; then ‘Umar was weighed.” The hadith continues.
And his saying:
“Call your father and your brother for me, so that I may write a document for Abū Bakr over which people will not disagree after me.” Then he said: “Allah and the believers will accept none but Abū Bakr.”
This was his declaration that Allah and the believers would confer the caliphate on none but Abū Bakr, whom he had intended to designate explicitly.
And his saying:
“Tonight a righteous man was shown a vision in which Abū Bakr appeared linked to the Messenger of Allah.” The hadith continues.
And his saying:
“The prophetic caliphate will last thirty years, then become kingship.”
As for commanding, examples include his saying:
“Follow the two who come after me: Abū Bakr and ‘Umar.”
And his saying:
“Adhere to my Sunnah and the Sunnah of the upright, rightly guided caliphs after me.”
When the woman asked him, “What if I do not find you?” he replied:
“Then go to Abū Bakr.”
He also said to those handling the alms:
“If you do not find him, give them to Abū Bakr.”
And there are other examples of this kind.