According to the consensus of most scholars—early and late—the sound ḥadiths attest that both camps, the Iraqis and the Syrians, remained within Islam. Among those reports is the authentic narration: “A renegade faction will break away from the best group of the Muslims, and it will be slain by the party that is nearest to the truth.” (1) That renegade faction were the Khārijites (secessionists), and ʿAlī and his companions put them down.

After ʿAlī was killed, Muʿāwiyah assumed sole authority in 41 AH. Each year he mounted two campaigns against Byzantium—one in summer and one in winter—and he would appoint someone from his clan to lead the pilgrims. He himself performed the ḥajj in 50 AH, while his son Yazīd did so in 51 AH. In that same year, or the next, Muʿāwiyah sent Yazīd to fight the Byzantines, and a large company of eminent Companions accompanied him until they laid siege to Constantinople. It is authentically reported: “The first army that attacks Constantinople will have its sins forgiven.” (2)

Wakīʿ narrated—through al-Aʿmash, from Abū Ṣāliḥ—that the camel-driver used to chant for ʿUthmān:
“After him the leader will be ʿAlī,
and in al-Zubayr lies a worthy substitute.”
Kaʿb responded, “Rather, it is the rider of the dapple-gray mule,” meaning Muʿāwiyah. [When Muʿāwiyah heard of this] (3) he came to Kaʿb and asked, “Abū Isḥāq, you say this while ʿAlī, al-Zubayr, and the Companions of Muḥammad ﷺ are present?” Kaʿb replied, “You are its rider.”

Sayf likewise transmitted—from Badr ibn al-Khalīl, from ʿUthmān ibn ʿAṭiyyah al-Asadī (4), from a man of Banū Asad—who said: “Muʿāwiyah never ceased hoping for the caliphate from the moment he heard the camel-driver in ʿUthmān’s days chant:
‘After him the leader will be ʿAlī,
and in al-Zubayr lies a worthy substitute.’
Kaʿb retorted, ‘You have lied; rather, the rider of the dapple-gray mule after him is Muʿāwiyah.’ Muʿāwiyah spoke to him about it, and Kaʿb said, ‘Yes, you will be the ruler after him, but by Allah it will not reach you until you deny what I have just foretold.’ The matter sank deep into Muʿāwiyah’s heart.” (5)

Ibn Abī al-Dunyā stated: Muḥammad ibn ʿAbbād al-Makkī told us, Sufyān ibn ʿUyaynah told us, on the authority of Abū Hārūn, who said: ʿUmar declared, “Beware of division after me. If you fall into it, Muʿāwiyah is in al-Shām; you will soon learn—once you are left to your own devices—how adroitly he will snatch the authority from you.” (6)