…he returned to his home, some men of Quraysh came to him and asked, “What will happen after that?” He replied,

“Then there will be al-harj—chaos and killing.” (1)

Al-Bayhaqī said (2): In the first narration the number itself is stated; in the second, the meaning intended by that number is explained; and in the third, the occurrence of al-harj—namely, the bloodshed that will follow them—is foretold. This number, with the qualities described, was indeed realized up to the reign of al-Walīd ibn Yazīd ibn ʿAbd al-Malik. After him al-harj and a tremendous civil strife broke out, just as this report predicts, and then the Abbasid rule emerged, as was alluded to in the preceding chapter. People exceed the number mentioned in the report only if they ignore the stated qualification or include within the count those who came after the harj it foretells.

The Prophet ﷺ also said:

“This authority will remain in Quraysh as long as two people remain on earth.” (3)

Al-Bayhaqī then cited it through the chain of ʿĀṣim ibn Muḥammad, from his father, from Ibn ʿUmar, from the Prophet ﷺ, and quoted it in full (4).

In Ṣaḥīḥ al-Bukhārī, through the route of al-Zuhrī, from Muḥammad ibn Jubayr ibn Muṭʿim, from Muʿāwiyah ibn Abī Sufyān, it is related that the Messenger of Allah ﷺ said:

“This affair is vested in Quraysh; no one who opposes them concerning it will escape being thrown down on his face by Allah, so long as they uphold the religion.” (5)

Al-Bayhaqī commented (6): that is, so long as they maintain its outward symbols, even if they fall short in their own personal deeds. He then produced several ḥadiths that support what he has stated—Allah knows best.

Such is the path Al-Bayhaqī followed, and a number of scholars have agreed with him, holding that the twelve caliphs mentioned in this ḥadith are the successive rulers up to the time of al-Walīd ibn Yazīd ibn ʿAbd al-Malik, the profligate about whom we have already cited reports of censure and warning. Yet this interpretation is open to objection.

The reason is that, by every reckoning, the caliphs up to al-Walīd ibn Yazīd are more than twelve. Proof of this is that the four caliphs—Abū Bakr, ʿUmar, ʿUthmān, and ʿAlī—are indisputably caliphs by the explicit wording of the ḥadith of Safīnah:

“The caliphate after me will last for thirty years.” (7)

After them came al-Ḥasan ibn ʿAlī, as actually happened, for ʿAlī had designated him, the people of Iraq pledged allegiance to him, and he himself set out—together with them—to fight the people of Syria until he and Muʿāwiyah reached a truce, as indicated by the ḥadith of Abū Bakrah in Ṣaḥīḥ…