the two Sahīh collections (1): “Then let him give the closing salutation, then perform two prostrations.” This is what Imam Ahmad meant when he said: “If he resorts to determining what is most likely, he prostrates after the closing salutation.”
According to him, the distinction between relying on certainty and determining what is most likely is as follows: if the worshipper is leading the prayer, he proceeds on the basis of his predominant judgment and strongest (2) impression. This is what is meant by determining what is most likely, and he therefore prostrates after the closing salutation, in accordance with the hadith of Ibn Mas‘ūd. If he is praying alone, he proceeds on the basis of certainty and prostrates before the closing salutation, in accordance with the hadith of Abū Sa‘īd. This is how most of his followers (3) interpret the apparent position of his school. Two other positions are also reported from him. The first (4) is that one proceeds on the basis of certainty in all cases; this is also the position of al-Shāfi‘ī and Mālik. The other is that one proceeds on the basis of one’s predominant judgment in all cases. Yet the apparent meaning of his explicit statements points (5) only to a distinction between doubt and a strong, predominant judgment: when in doubt, one proceeds on the basis of certainty; when one impression predominates, or one has a predominant judgment, one determines what is most likely. His answers revolve around this distinction, and he understood the two hadiths as applying to these two situations (6). Allah knows best.
Abū Hanīfa said regarding doubt: if it occurs for the first time, one begins the prayer anew. If it occurs frequently, one proceeds on the basis of one’s predominant judgment, if one has such a judgment; if not, one proceeds on the basis of certainty (7).