pray. Or, if you prefer, say: “No worshipper should pray,” because when a pronoun does not refer back to something specific, it should refer back to a derived description taken from the verbal noun from which the verb itself is derived.

His statement, “before he deems it more likely than not that its time has begun,” indicates that it is permissible to pray when one considers it more likely than not that the time has begun. Thus, if the sky is clear and we see that the sun has set, we pray Maghrib; in this case, we are certain that the time has begun. But if the sky is overcast and we do not see the sun, yet we consider it more likely than not that it has set, we pray. This is prayer based on a preponderant likelihood.

The evidence for the first case is clear.

As for the second—that is, praying on the basis of a preponderant likelihood—it is because the Prophet ﷺ and his Companions broke their fast on the basis of a preponderant likelihood. As related in the hadith of Asma’ bint Abu Bakr, may Allah be pleased with her, who said: “During the lifetime of the Prophet ﷺ, we broke our fast on an overcast day; then the sun appeared.” Reported by al-Bukhari (1). Here, they certainly broke their fast on the basis of a preponderant likelihood, not certainty. Therefore, if it is permissible to act upon a preponderant likelihood regarding the end of the time—which here was the time for fasting—it is permissible to act upon a preponderant likelihood regarding the beginning of the time. Indeed, this further entails that had they prayed Maghrib when they broke their fast, their prayer would have been valid, so long as it did not become clear that the matter was otherwise.

Issue:

May one pray while uncertain whether the time has begun?