His statement, “then according to the apparent position of the madhhab,” is an unusual expression for the author, since it is not his customary manner of expression, and because this is an abridged work. Perhaps he used it because of the strength of the disagreement.

His statement, “the madhhab,” here refers to the technical position of the school, not Imam Ahmad’s personal view. This is because there is no explicit report from Imam Ahmad—may Allah have mercy on him—that fasting this day is obligatory, contrary to what the later scholars of the school stated.

His statement, “fasting it is obligatory,” means an obligation based on probability and precaution.

Thus, the obligation here is founded upon precaution and probability, not upon certainty and decisiveness. The crescent may have appeared but not been seen because of cloud cover, dust, or some other impediment; yet it is also possible that it did not appear.

This is the well-known position of the madhhab among the later scholars (1). Some of them even said that Ahmad’s texts indicate that it is obligatory, citing the following evidence:

1. The hadith of Ibn Umar—may Allah be pleased with him—who said that the Prophet—may Allah’s peace and blessings be upon him—said: “When you see it, begin fasting; and when you see it, end the fast. But if it is obscured from you, then determine it by estimation.” (2)

The phrase faqduru lahu (“then determine it by estimation”) is derived from qadr, meaning constriction. This is how the scholars of the school explained it, saying: “Determine it restrictively,” meaning, “Constrict its count.” They said: An example of this is His saying: